For economies struggling to control infection rates, a lengthier lockdown will inflict an additional toll on activity. The IMF Press Center is a password-protected site for working journalists.Global growth is projected at –4.9 percent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast. In a baseline scenario--which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound—the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support. Where lockdowns are required, economic policy should continue to cushion household income losses with sizable, well-targeted measures as well as provide support to firms suffering the consequences of mandated restrictions on activity.
In the face of this disquieting outlook, the immediate priority for policymakers is to address the health crisis and contain the short-term economic damage. East Asia and the Pacific will grow by a scant 0.5%.
The risks for even more severe outcomes, however, are substantial. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the recovery is … Low oil prices are likely to provide, at best, temporary initial support to growth once restrictions to economic activity are lifted.
The extent of the recent rebound in financial market sentiment appears disconnected from shifts in underlying economic prospects—as the June 2020 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) Update discusses—raising the possibility that financial conditions may tighten more than assumed in the baseline.All countries—including those that have seemingly passed peaks in infections—should ensure that their health care systems are adequately resourced. The sharp pace of global growth forecast downgrades points to the possibility of yet further downward revisions and the need for additional action by policymakers in coming months to support economic activity.A particularly concerning aspect of the outlook is the humanitarian and economic toll the global recession will take on economies with extensive informal sectors that make up an estimated one-third of the GDP and about 70% of total employment in emerging market and developing economies. The world GDP is the added total of the gross national income for every country in the world. The IMF sees U.S. GDP at 2% in 2020, and will decline further to 1.7% in 2021.
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